What will the economic recovery look like?
If you were at the recent Racing to the Summit economic conference, then you know how Rich Karlgaard, publisher of Forbes, would answer that question.
In a word, uneven. Just like economic recovery from the 1973-74 recession.
While the causal factors of this recession are different to the one of the 1970s, we’ve been left with a similar scale of damage: unemployment, stock devalue and a low national confidence—the lowest, incidentally, since 1974.
As a result, Karlgaard believes the economic recovery will be patchy and irregular…one quarter doing well, another backtracking…back and forth. He said second quarter results should be good, but that the third quarter may be slower. A sort of “two steps forward, one step back” approach.
Karlgaard predicts unevenness will be the hallmark of this economic recovery—uneven from industry to industry, market to market, and geography to geography.
He says you just have to look across the country to find that incredible unevenness. Indiana is faring much better than some of the states surrounding us—such as Michigan, which, according to Karlgaard, is not in a recession, but a depression. And in California, there are pockets of cities doing well and pockets of cities that are struggling.
So, how can companies prevail during this time?
Well, for the answer to that question, you need to stop back and read tomorrow’s blog on the five things companies need to succeed in this new economy.